Home > Strategies and Skill Development > Discourse Strategy Families > Prediction > Literature Note - Prediction

Prediction can be viewed as a method for mobilizing tacit knowledge (such as might derive from experience with texts in a particular genre) to improve reading comprehension (though predicting what ought to come next might also be useful as a writing strategy, by helping writers to identify reader expectations that they must meet). Significant research indicates that better readers are able to mobilize prediction as an explicit strategy (Duke & Pearson, 2002; Englert & Mariage, 1991; Nolan, 1991; Oczkus, 2003; Palincsar & Brown, 1986; Palinscar, 1988, 2003).

Prediction thus depends upon acquisition of implicit expectations about genre and about the rhetorical moves likely in a genre and development of a sense of relevance to support judgments about how important a topic is in a particular textual context. Generating such expectations has the effect of giving readers a place to slot new material where it is immediately linked to existing textual content. In a writing context, it can suggest alternative directions for elaborating on already written content.

Duke, N. K., & Pearson, P. D. (2002). Effective practices for developing reading comprehension. In A. E. Farstrup & S. J. Samuels (Eds.), What research has to say about reading instruction (pp. 205-242). Newark, DE: International Reading Association.

Englert, C. S., & Mariage, T. V. (1991). Making students partners in the comprehension process: Organizing the reading "POSSE." Learning Disability Quarterly, 14(2), 123-138.

Nolan, T. E. (1991). Self-questioning and prediction: Combining metacognitive strategies. Journal of Reading, 35(2), 132-138.

Oczkus, L. D. (2003). Reciprocal teaching at work: Strategies for improving reading comprehension. Newark, DE: International Reading Association.

Palincsar, A. S. (1988). Teaching and practicing thinking skills to promote comprehension in the context of group problem solving. Remedial and Special Education, 9(1), 53-59.

Palincsar, A. S. (2003). Ann L. Brown: Advancing a theoretical model of learning and instruction. In B. J. Zimmerman & D. S. Schunk (Eds.), Educational psychology: A century of contributions (pp. 459-476). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

Palincsar, A. S., & Brown, A. L. (1986). Interactive teaching to promote independent learning from text. The Reading Teacher, 39(8), 771-777.

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