Home > Strategies and Skill Development > Discourse Strategy Families > Prediction


Prediction underlies the ability to generate the expectations that, if met, make a text coherent. Such expectations include expectations about textual form (such as the relation between a title and the content under that title, or between items in a bulleted list), about the kinds of content likely to follow given what has already been said, and similar responses to content that prepare the reader to interpret what follows (if the writer is cooperating by meeting those expectations). Prediction strategies include specific, conscious techniques for generating expectations, such as the so-called journalist's questions (who? what? when? where? how? why?). The hypothesized development of these skills is presented in Development Table 24.


This class of discourse strategies supports Reading Standard 1 from the Common Core State Standards, though it is met in full only at the conceptual level.


Literature Note - Prediction


Development Table 24. Hypothesized Development of Prediction Skills

Level
Interpretation
Deliberation
Expression
Preliminary
(oral to sentence)
Can generate expectations about what will come next in a text that are justified based upon the information that a text has presented thus far.
Can deploy prediction strategies based upon asking salient questions about a text based upon one’s understanding of what is likely to come next.
Can generate at least one reasonable continuation if a story or a simple explanation is interrupted partway through.
Foundational
(sentence to paragraph)
Can distinguish between plausible and implausible continuations based upon the information presented in a text thus far.
Can deploy prediction strategies based upon multiple questions that are important (given the text thus far) but which have not yet been answered.
Can generate multiple plausible continuations if a story or a simple explanation is interrupted partway through.
Basic
(paragraph to text)
Can generate linking inferences that account for (relatively) unexpected text segments by drawing upon information that can be deduced from the propositional content of the preceding text.
Can deploy model-building strategies that support comprehension and retention of textual information by deliberately finding and listing a variety of relationships among elements in the text.
Can elaborate a text by inserting explicit connections and explanations linking new information to information given earlier in the text.
Intermediate
(text to context)
Can generate bridging inferences that account for (relatively) unexpected text segments by drawing upon generally shared background knowledge.
Can deploy model-building strategies by listing and making explicit one’s hypotheses or explanations for unexpected events or statements.
Can elaborate a text by inserting plausible explanations based on generally shared background knowledge.
Advanced
(text and context to discourse)
Can generate contextualizing inferences that account for (relatively) unexpected text segments by linking them to features of the social situation, purpose, and audience.
Can deploy contextualization strategies that support interest and engagement by identifying and listing ways in which features of a text are motivated by its situation, purpose and audience.
Can elaborate a text by adding information that motivates textual content by relating it to the social situation, purpose, and audience.



Home | About CBAL | Acknowledgments | Contact Us

© 2012 Educational Testing Service. The Common Core State Standards © copyright 2010 National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers. All rights reserved.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.